Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf told the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) that given the political situation at home and in the region, he is undecided whether or not to step down as the country’s Army Chief of Staff, something he had promised to do. The general’s statement followed a political storm set off by Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat’s statement that Musharraf must not retire from his powerful military post. Hayat is wanted by the National Accountability Bureau, Pakistan’s anti-corruption department.
Let’s not forget that the Muttahida Majlis Amal – a six-party alliance of powerful religious parties – waged a year-long political campaign against Musharraf being president and army chief at the same time. After lengthy negotiations, the president agreed with the religious parties to shed his uniform before the last day of 2004 in order to safeguard Pakistan’s democratic credentials in the international community. The Pakistani nation sighed with relief after General Musharraf accepted the religious parties’ demands on this issue and on several constitutional amendments issues. However, despite the agreement, many Pakistani political analysts expressed doubt about the general’s sincerity to honor it; they feared this issue would not be resolved so easily and so quickly.
Analysts argued that there was no historical precedent for a powerful Pakistani army officer to leave his post willingly. General Musharraf knows that it was his uniform that not only brought him to power, but allowed for the coercion that made him president.
As far as Musharraf’s agreement with the religious parties’ alliance is concerned, he did it just to gain time and achieve his short-term objective: to validate his presidency. Now, just three months after signing the agreement, Musharraf’s lack of sincerity has been exposed, causing understandable concern and indignation in the country’s political and social circles.
The impact of his decision at an international level will not be known immediately. Right now, the world needs General Musharraf and so does the Pakistani Army. This is particularly true in the case of the international war against terrorism. There is consensus that the war on terror would have been impossible without Pakistan’s active support. Perhaps that is why the international community is not only forced to accept General Musharraf’s decisions but has supported them.
Musharraf’s supporters in America say that the improved Pakistan-India relations justify his decision for not vacating his powerful military office; there are bright prospects for the two South Asian rivals to get closer on settling the bilateral Kashmir dispute. His U.S. supporters argue it is imperative that the true parties to the conflict – the Pakistani Army, the Hindu extremist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP or Indian People’s Party) and the Vishwa Hindu Pareshad in India – be in office in both the countries in order to reach a settlement on the Kashmir dispute. Some diplomatic quarters believe that the United States wants to enhance Pakistan’s role in the war against terrorism. According to them, in keeping with past U.S. experience, when there is no consensus on matters of national security like in Pakistan, the army has a more powerful and decisive role to play than a civilian representative government. For the United States, a give-and-take relationship is easier with the army; who rules the country is inconsequential. Its primary focus is U.S. interests and objectives in the region.
In our opinion, even when analyzing the positive progress of the Pakistan-India relations, American interests are still visible by keeping the international war on terror present. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice’s admission before the 9/11 Commission that the United States pressed Pakistan for assistance in dealing with the Taliban and Osama bin Laden before the September 11 attacks is significant in this regard. She also revealed that, at same the time, Washington asked India to help bring peace and stability to the South Asian region. Rice’s statements clearly show that the recent improvement in the Pakistan-India relations is due not to a change of heart in leaderships, but to a compulsion by these two countries to help achieve America’s strategic and political objectives in the region.
Analyzing the character of Musharraf’s political ambitions, we see that he can afford the luxury of ignoring Pakistan’s political parties, public sentiment and opinion, set aside Pakistan’s Constitution and all principles of morality. The General understands America’s needs and compulsions; helping make these happen will assure him U.S. support to realize his own political dreams. Time is on his side: it will take the United States a very long time to achieve its objectives of expansionism in that part of the world. And as long as the United States has unrealized strategic interests and objectives in the region, the Pakistani people cannot remove Musharraf from power, despite their earnest desire.
Pakistani political analysts say that no one can harm Musharraf if he does not honor his pledge with the religious parties alliance. They see Pakistan as helpless and unarmed and the political leadership divided – some fled the country and others sold out to the government of the moment. As far as the Pakistani army is concerned, the soldiers are silent spectators to General Musharraf’s blackmailing of not only his own people but also the United States; they fear that if they say something, it could undermine the country’s integrity and unity. Meanwhile army officers are kept happy with bribes of costly residential plots and other perks; their support for Musharraf is understandable.
Pakistan’s future is obvious. Every one knows that the day America achieves its objectives in the region, it will use the massive bungling and corruption of the Musharraf era in order to attain its next goal, given that support for an undemocratic government is illegal under the U.S. law.
If the Pakistani people want to rid the country of Musharraf and give the reins of governance back to a representative government, they should exert pressure on their compatriots settled in the United States. They must press Pakistani Americans to work wholeheartedly for the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. They should not only give their own vote to the Democratic Party candidate, but also ask other Muslims to support and work for the success of John Kerry at the ballot. They must understand that President Bush’s re-election would promote war in South Asia and the Middle East in order to achieve U.S. interests. If John Kerry emerges victorious in the elections, America’s national interests would be limited to the American people. This is the only way that Pakistan can be rid of General Musharraf and can hope for democracy in other Muslim countries.
