The “Patriot Plan,” under which military operations will be carried out on the Colombian and Ecuadorian borders against guerrilla armies, is not as simple as it seems. This second military phase will allow for large-scale military actions, with regiments of counter-insurgency forces formed over the past 10 years carrying out operations.

But there is much disinformation throughout Ecuador about the Patriot Plan’s true content. According to Colombian sources, the plan entails the transfer of 15,000 troops to regions occupied by guerrilla forces – in particular the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) – in the Departments of Caquetá and Putumayo. This movement of troops is not intended to control the border with Ecuador, but rather to strike at insurgents and drive them towards the south, by means of ground combat that will be heavily supported by air and intelligence operations.

This offensive seeks to take advantage of the FARC’s strategic withdrawal. During the past year, the Colombian Army dismantled eight fronts held by the urban guerrilla organizations, capturing five insurgent leaders and killing ten others.

How is this all going to affect Ecuador?

According to security analysts, the operations will push guerrillas and people towards the border, a region known for its sympathy towards guerrilla forces. This could result in the expansion of coca cultivation, as well as the spreading of social, political and military violence associated with the conflict. [Furthermore, the region could possibly see] the presence of a large number of displaced people, who, without any resources of their own, will have to be attended to. And the strategic and fragile nature of the structures that produce and transport oil – the core of the national economy – make the country’s vulnerability all the more apparent.

Ecuador’s preparedness

How will the country face this situation? A government minister admitted that a global strategy to confront the problem didn’t exist. Military officials content themselves with their Internal Plan for Defense and their patrolling manuals. But it is the way in which the Ecuadorian Armed Forces are carrying out this process that worries experts.

Elements of the plan reveal a new orientation in Ecuador’s military policy with respect to the Colombian conflict. An official who’s involved with patrolling operations in the Sucumbíos province on Ecuador’s northern border region with Colombia located tells us that patrolmen go out on duty with instructions to “capture or eliminate” any members of illegal groups of armed Colombians who cross into Ecuadorian territory.

According to the chief of the Ecuadorian Joint Command, General Octavio Romero, Ecuadorian military policy is changing in order to “aid extermination operations” designed by the Colombian government.

The problem lies in the dramatic decrease in operative capacity, which according to military sources, is at 30 percent. This means that military equipment is not being maintained. The Air Force has restricted aerial operations, leaving pilots without enough training or practice. Furthermore, the army lacks the necessary resources to mobilize its vehicles and its fleets of artillery helicopters, which support patrols in Ecuador’s northern border regions.

Security experts call into question the Patriot Plan’s effectiveness. The FARC, as a response to the Plan, has carried out a “strategic withdrawal.” This is an implicit effort to safeguard their structures. Additionally, they have changed their military tactics from large-scale operations to smaller ones. In other words, a return to guerrilla warfare.

It is highly unlikely that 15,000 Colombian troops will be able to control the extensive regions of the Colombian jungle. If [the Patriot Plan] is about dismantling the social, economic and political bases of the FARC, it is necessary to maintain military control of the relevant territories. However, planned operations according to the Patriot Plan made public by Colombia’s own military forces, consist solely of sharp attacks followed by quick withdrawals.

How does this affect the region?

“One can assume that the Colombian conflict will have a torturous evolution over a long period of time – now expanded militarily to the general region at large – which was exactly what [those concerned with] Ecuador’s national interests should have avoided,” highlighted Alexei Páez, an investigator with the Andino Center for Strategic Studies, an independent organization.

The conflict will not be contained to the northern border region. It’s apparent that the conflict will become regionalized, and then one has to take into account the sprouting of conflicts between nations, which have remained dormant since the last Ecuadorian-Peruvian War.

Páez draws attention to potential confrontation between Venezuela and Colombia over the maritime oil zones, and another confrontation between Bolivia and Chile over the issue of gas, and a third conflict between Ecuador and Chile against Perú over the maritime border set up by Perú.

Increase in military aid

Meanwhile, the U.S. government has projected an annual increase in military aid of $110 million to finance the operations, which will be carried out for at least the next three years. An immediate defeat of insurgent groups is not in the forecast.