Potential illegal immigrants have been terribly frightened by the arrival of the first National Guard units at the Mexican border. According to both the Mexican and U.S. governments, this fear has been reflected by a dramatic reduction in attempts to cross the border.

During the last 10 days of June 2005, there were about 34,077 people who attempted to enter U.S. territory from Mexico. In the same period this year, however, only 26,994 made an attempt, representing a drop of 21 percent.

In the most active area – the Arizona border – the number of similar attempts has decreased by 23 percent, even though, as Mario Martinez, the Washington-based spokesman for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency noted, the weather has favored border-crossers since the temperature in the desert is not so high now.

The 6,000 National Guard members arrived at the border on June 3. The soldiers do not have the right to arrest migrants; their participation is limited to constructing a barrier along the border. The only thing they are doing now is setting up roadblocks using cars holding people. But their presence alone has already had the effect of keeping potential border-crossers away.

“They are truly frightened because they have learned about the U.S. Army’s bad reputation by watching TV reports about scandals in Iraq and at Guantanamo,” one human rights activist said.

Another reason for the reduction in attempted crossings is that following the decision to deploy the National Guard to the border, smugglers began to double their prices for transporting humans to up to $3,000 per person.

Until recently, detention centers where people caught crossing the border illegally are confined held about 100 people per day; now they hold about a dozen.

The assumption was that quite a few potential migrants would head to the California – Mexico border. This has turned out to be true: the number of people detained there during the first ten days of June 2006 increased by 7 percent to 5,965. However, it is still too early to address the permanence of this trend.

“The situation will be clear at the end of the month, by which time 2,500 soldiers will have been deployed to the borders of four states – Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas,” said Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ). “By this point, we will know where the torrent of illegals are heading and which border areas need additional support.”

Neighboring Mexico is sharply critical of the plan to deploy National Guard troops at the border. The government has gone so far as to announce that it will observe National Guard troops to ensure that they do not participate in apprehending border crossers. This may sound strange, but that’s what they said they’re going to do.

Mass media in Mexico and U.S. border states are abound with stories of illegal immigrants, as well as with interviews with them that reflect their determination to continue migrating to the United States, since that is their only chance of earning enough money to support themselves and their families. The Mexican government confirms this, even though by doing so it acknowledges its inability to help its own citizens.