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Is our next president in the race yet?

Is it just me or do you get the sense that that none of the official presidential aspirants, Democrat or Republican, have exactly ignited the electorate at this point?

Of course it’s early, with the election still a year and a half away. In fact, this rush to get the '08 campaign in high gear long before voters are focused on the issues or personalities at hand may be a major deterrent to getting people interested in who will lead them after George W. Bush steps down.

But looking over the list of declared candidates, I get the feeling that our next president may not have entered the fray yet. Here’s why.

On the Democratic side, you have to start with Sen. Hillary Clinton, since this is her race to lose, in a sense. She’s got the name recognition, the big bucks, an efficient staff behind her and she is the consummate professional in handling herself in public. She is smooth, perhaps to a fault, as in criticizing the Iraq war without feeling the need to apologize for having voted for it in the Senate.

Her strategy is to make competency and concerns the issue, while her opponents will try to make her the issue, knowing that she evokes incredibly strong negative as well as positive emotions.

Then there’s Sen. Barack Obama, the hottie of the race, with his charm, poise and fresh approach. He burst out of the field with impressive attention, but this is a marathon, and one wonders if he may burn out too soon.

Sen. John Edwards is a solid candidate, with good looks, the experience of a national campaign and thoughtful proposals, but the gap between his image as champion of the working class and the reality of his wealth may be a problem.

Several of the other candidates like Sen. Joe Biden and Sen. Chris Dodd have appealing qualities but will have a hard time garnering sufficient enthusiasm.

So who do the Democrats pick?

Let’s look at the Republican lineup first and then get to the predictions.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is leading the pack now, with his tough talk on the need to combat international terrorism mixed with recent memories of his remarkable leadership after 9/11. But New Yorkers know well Rudy’s temper and enthusiasm for picking fights and wonder how long he can go without pulling a John Dean, self-destructing in some very public way. Not to mention his complicated personal life, which will not sit well with the Christian right.

Sen. John McCain has the most impressive biography as an authentic war hero and successful senator, but at 72 he seems to be fading already.

Mitt Romney is the fresh face on the Republican side, and his good looks and likeable manner are strong assets. But he served only one term as Massachusetts governor and is criticized in some circles for appearing to flip-flop on issues like abortion. Plus, his Mormon faith may be problematic to some voters.

All in all, I suspect that religious prejudice will be less of a factor in a campaign where a woman and a black man are running for president. Americans are really looking for someone they consider competent, creative and trustworthy to lead them out of Iraq – in a good way, if possible – and into renewed hope in a scary world. And they care less than ever about the person’s color, gender or religious beliefs.

A Jewish community attuned to sensitivities about Israel can take comfort in knowing that the major contenders support their views, to varying degrees. Some candidates will call for talking with Israel’s enemies while others will emphasize the need to protect the Jewish state, but the practical differences between them may not prove significant.

Meanwhile, as the declared candidates crisscross the country, a few important figures are waiting in the wings. I suspect that Al Gore is watching carefully, primed to jump into the race if Hillary or Obama falters. The former vice president, who has gained enormous attention and respect for his campaign to deal with global warming, could get his second chance, again. If he starts losing weight, he’s getting ready to run.

On the Republican side, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, well known to many Americans for his role as a district attorney on “Law And Order,” is a popular figure who may also be ready to make his move. Just this week he launched a preliminary campaign committee, the first step toward official candidacy.

And party regulars are yearning for Newt Gingrich to step up, believing he is the smartest and most politically savvy of the field. But he has been married three times and confessed to infidelities, including when he was House speaker during the Clinton impeachment trial. Gingrich has said he won’t be deciding before September.

Finally, don’t count out Michael Bloomberg, the Republican mayor of New York who could also run as a Democrat or as an independent candidate. He has gained credit and confidence as an efficient, if less than charismatic, mayor, and some sources say he has put aside a half-billion dollars of his own money for the campaign, should he choose to run.

It may take a few more months for the players to sort themselves out, but it is clear that the major issue of the '08 race will be Iraq and America’s standing in a world grown increasingly ominous.

The good news is that the race is wide open and the choices are broad; the bad news is that the problems facing America grow more serious by the day.

It’s not too early to start paying attention to the campaign.

 

In Editorials section of Edition 275: 21 June 2007

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