The consequences of the upcoming elections could be the primary enemy of immigration reform proposed by President George W. Bush, which would provide a solution, albeit a partial one, to the number of undocumented immigrants that grows daily and has reached 12 million.

The unpopularity of President Bush, the division among Republicans, the ambiguity of Democrats regarding a real solution to the immigration issue, and the failures of U.S. policy regarding the causes of immigration from Latin America make it improbable that the problem, more then two decades in the making, will be resolved.

Among other mistakes, the United States has not realized what an enormous transformation has taken place in the Latin-American region in the past 20 years. There was an enormous demographic explosion in the majority of Latin American countries, especially in its neighbor, Mexico, and the United States has not contemplated the impact that maintaining erroneous and counterproductive policies has had in some of these countries.

At the same time, President Bush, who is taking up the cause of immigration reform, has done little to help it. His popularity and trust in his initiatives and work have dropped dramatically. According to the most recent Gallup poll in USA Today, his approval rating is only around 32 percent.

Indeed, there is a deep division within the president’s own party – one side supports immigration reform while the most radical Republicans, the president’s usual support base, are completely against the reform.

On the other hand, the Democrats have taken an ambiguous position. They do not want a complete reform, because they do not want to be held responsible for legalizing the 12 million undocumented immigrants. But, notably, they also do not want to be accused of closing the door. The Democrats want to present themselves as liberal politicians; some of them prefer political pragmatism over their ideals and are counting their votes before deciding to support the reform or not. In addition, they are concerned about the impact of a legal Latino workforce on the impoverished middle class in the United States.

In summary, it seems clear that immigrants are sort of a hot potato for politicians of both parties, and it is unlikely that one of the two will assume the responsibility of passing immigration reform in an election year despite knowing how necessary it is. This situation is a shame because, once again, it postpones indefinitely a problem that worsens every day and requires an immediate response.

Eduardo Gamarra is the director of Newlink Research. Diana Pardo is a consultant for Newlink Political