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Where will Latino voters go now?

It may not be perfect, but the way candidates for the presidency in the United States are chosen does work. It begins with several choices for the voter and through a process of elimination ends with two still in the race. It is probably one of the most democratic electoral systems in the world. Even so, it has its faults.

When candidates from the same party face off, the voters choose their favorites, but when the primaries are over, they are forced to change their allegiances. That is particularly difficult after so intense a campaign as this election year's, in which the voters supported their candidates with unusual passion.

So now that the Democratic presidential nominee has been defined, the sixty-four million dollar question on everyone's tongue is: “Where will Hillary Clinton's partisans go now?” These are their options: Support Barack Obama against whom she led a fierce campaign; cross party lines and give their votes to the Republican John McCain; or do the unthinkable and abstain from voting altogether.

This is certainly a dilemma that affects Latino voters. A good portion of the fastest-growing sector of our electorate is now faced with the schizoid imperative of having to reconsider its commitment. The majority of the large opinion polls that measured Latino voters' intentions had Senator Clinton as the clear favorite, with nearly seven in every ten Hispanic voters in her favor.

Even after Obama has stepped up his effort to reach out to Latino voters, the numbers have not changed in his favor. Support from prominent Latino politicians like Congressman Luis Gutiérrez (D-Illinois) and New Mexico's Governor Bill Richardson did not do much to influence the Latino vote.

Support for Obama from Senator Ted Kennedy, with the intention of capturing the attention of Latino voters, might have made them listen, but it is still not known if they liked what they heard. According to exit polls done in states where the Latino vote was closely followed, Clinton registered between 65 and 70 percent of Latinos' support, in comparison with 30 to 35 percent for Obama, except in his own state of Illinois, where he got 50 percent of the Latino vote.

Now that Obama has Clinton's support, can he attract the Latino voters who preferred her to him? The pollster Sergio Bendixen, one of Clinton's chief advisers on Hispanic issues, says Obama has to win over the Hispanic vote to his side. “He will have to focus his message on issues of importance for Latino voters if he's going to win their support,” he said.

One could say exactly the same thing about the presumptive Republican candidate John McCain. The Democratic Party has a significant advantage over the Republicans among Hispanic voters who were affected by the negative tone of the immigration debate. In a poll taken last year by the Pew Hispanic Center, only 23 percent of Latinos considered themselves to be Republicans, and a large majority said that the Democratic Party shows more concern for the Latino community than the Republican Party does.

Also, a Gallup poll this May showed that while Clinton did better than Obama against McCain, Obama would still beat him among Latinos with 62 percent of the vote to 29 percent. But all bets are off now that the real race for the White House begins.

Possibly now more than ever the Latino vote is open to the highest bidder. Voter registration campaigns have been intense throughout the country, aiming to increase the number of Hispanic voters and get 9 million – a record number – to the voting booth. Hillary's Latino supporters must pay close attention and get to know well their new options. But staying home and not voting should not be one of them.

 

In 2008 Presidential Elections: Through the lens of ethnic journalists section of Edition 326: 19 June 2008

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