If the last two weeks are any indication of the future, northwest Bronx is in for a long, loud, and violent summer.

Traditionally, violent crime, along with the weather, picks up during the summer throughout New York City. But this summer, the 52nd Precinct – which is contiguous with Community District 7 and includes the neighborhoods of Bedford Park, North Fordham, Norwood and University Heights – is off to a particularly rough start after the relatively quiet first five months of the year.

In the last two weeks alone, a 15-year-old Bedford Park resident was murdered, and shooting incidents have doubled. There were only four shooting incidents in the first five months of the year and there have been four since June 12. The gun violence is being accumulated by reports of raucous street behavior in neighborhoods throughout the precinct.

"I dread summer here," said Michael Pimentel, a former member of Bronx Community Board 7 who lives in University Heights. "It gets to the point that I am not happy coming back to the Bronx from Manhattan."

Meanwhile, police at the 52nd Precinct are scrambling up resources to make up for their shrinking police force. Over the past few months, the precinct has lost 40 cops to other commands.

At recent community meetings, residents like Pimentel have bombarded local cops with complaints of noise, public drinking and open-air drug dealing. But the four shooting incidents – one of which was fatal – emphasize the violence that stems from increased street activity, especially amongst young adults.

Augie Aloia, a former NYPD cop who now teaches criminal justice at Monroe College, says that increased violence is a combination of factors: warmer weather; kids being out of school; group mentality; and alcohol or other intoxicants. "When people are under the influence of alcohol, their inhibitions go down, and their guns or knives come out," Aloia said. "They might think about doing that bodega robbery much more." She also added that this kind of behavior merely escalates arguments and violence.

It's unclear exactly what reasons led to the murder of 15-year-old Juan Jerez, but it appears to have been the result of a teenage argument.

It was late Friday night, June 12, and Juan, a high-school freshman, was on his way to play basketball near the corner of Minerva Place and 198th Street. Earlier in the day, police said, Juan may have been involved in an argument with neighborhood rivals where someone was flaunting their gun.

Someone opened fire on Juan, who was with at least one companion. Some residents said they heard as many 12 or 15 shots. Juan took two bullets to the chest, killing him instantly. His unidentified companion was also shot once in the right leg.

Two days later, police arrested Daikwan Giles, 17, who lives two blocks away from the crime scene – charges are still pending.

A group of about 20 of Juan's friends gathered on the Monday after his death their eyes brimming with tears, "RIP Juan" was spray painted not only on Juan's apartment building, but also on the sidewalk where he was shot. As these high-school teens remembered Juan in silence, they lit candles, signed posters, and placed flowers and pictures on the site of his death.

It was difficult for many of Juan's friends to talk about the tragic incident, but they all agreed that he would be missed.

Juan's friends insisted the victim did not have any enemies, but said the area is notoriously dangerous. Other residents on Minerva said the area is usually quiet, but that lately it's taken a turn for the worse.

Missing from the makeshift memorial was Juan's family. His friends said they went to bury their son in the Dominican Republic.

Maria Santiago, who lives next door to the Jerez's apartment complex, said people are at risk in this dangerous area. Santiago said that the police "don't do anything" and there are teenage gang members, violence and drugs spilling onto the streets.

Lieutenant Thomas Hammer of the 52nd Precinct said police were doing the best they could with their dwindling resources. Even with the recent incidents, Hammer said shootings are decreasing compared to last year. Hammer said he hopes the outbreak was an aberration and not a sign of things to come. He also hopes the precinct gets an infusion of rookie cops when the next police academy seniors graduate in July and the new fiscal year starts.

Nelson Infante, a restaurant owner in Bedford Park for 28 years, agreed that the neighborhood has gradually become "worse and worse." He blames teenagers for the violent outbreaks, saying they just "don't want to go to school."

Infante has known Juan's mother for 10 years. He described Juan as a "good kid," but said he did not know any information about the shooting. "I am shocked that it happened to Juan, but not shocked that it happened in the area," he said.

Last Wednesday night, June 17, a man in his 20s was shot just a block away on 198th and Creston Avenue. And late on Sunday, June 14, a man was shot on Grand Avenue, just south of Fordham Road. There was another shooting on June 21 on the corner of West Kingsbridge Road, near Sedgwick Avenue. Fortunately, none of these shootings had resulted in fatalities.