Bubbles happen in real estate and stock markets, but what about in politics? Here in North America, perhaps because of the stability of the political system, perhaps because of our cynical belief that one politician is just as bad as the next, engagement with politics, particularly voter participation, is strikingly low. So when Barack Obama sent a burst of fresh air into American politics by becoming the United State's first black president, it raised high hopes for political renewal.
Time flies. Now it's been a year since Obama was elected, 10 months since he took office, and we are all asking: Was last year's excitement just a political bubble? If we view the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections as a "vote of confidence" in Obama, do the Democratic losses in those states mean the bubble is about to burst?
Nobody denies that Obama inherited quite a mess – quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan, the financial meltdown of the century, and the deterioration of America's image abroad. Such problems can't be solved overnight, so to say after just one year, that Obama's bubble has burst is a bit unfair. But the fruits of Obama's first year of labor are not a cause for optimism. He's lost 10 pounds and 29 percentage points in his approval rating. Commentators are calling him a lion on the campaign trail but a mouse in the office. A year after his initial triumph, Obama himself admits it: change is not easy.
All political and ideological prejudices aside, Obama's no slacker. He's worked hard to promote healthcare reform, change our war strategy, and save the economy. But the results have not been stellar, and in some areas, things have even gotten worse. His healthcare reform efforts, rather than winning support across the political spectrum, have sunken into typical partisan bickering, even provoking street protests. His attempts to amend Bush's war policy by withdrawing from Iraq and concentrating forces in Afghanistan have been met with failure, as the situation in Afghanistan worsens daily. At the same time, though Obama knows the root of the Middle East's problems lies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the White House's attempts to push forward peace talks have yielded no progress, only steps backward. On Iran and North Korea, Obama seems helpless, giving ground on both fronts.
No one doubts that Obama wants to revise Bush's America-first stance and open up dialogue with the international community – this was the ideal that won him the Nobel Peace Prize, based on no other concrete achievements. But when push comes to shove, Obama still chooses America's national interest over diplomatic change, abandoning his campaign promise to push for reform in the face of opposition. His decision to continue the embargo on Cuba is a classic example.
Is Obama's failure to turn his illustrious image into illustrious achievements due to his own inability to do more than shout slogans, or is it because American politics are so deadlocked by wrangling interest groups and partisan warfare that a single man, no matter how ambitious his vision, cannot hope to affect change? To put it another way, is Obama a brilliant reformer, or a brilliant performer? One year isn't long enough to answer these questions, so we'll just have to stay tuned. But one thing's clear: The world still hopes not only that the Obama dream is more than just a bubble, but also to see the dream of change become reality.
