Indian Americans on all sides of the political divide concur that these off-year elections Nov. 3, are, at the very least, a warning sign for President Obama. Democrats lost key gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, and Republicans crowed that a page had turned in the Obama presidency so soon after takeover. Indian Americans also seem to agree that the slogan that worked against Republicans now holds true for Democrats – "It's the economy stupid." And even Democrats faulted their party for the quality of campaigns run and felt the community had been neglected or taken for granted, making some candidates more precarious.

But Indian Americans are mixed on whether these losses at the polls were actually a referendum on President Obama's accomplishments since that undeniably historic day he was elected a year ago on November 3. Some say they were, while others contend it was mainly the local scenario that determined the vote.

But for Shekhar Tiwari, who considers himself one of the first Indian Americans to turn Republican back in 1974 when he lived in New Jersey, things are pretty black and white. His joy at Republican gubernatorial victories is unqualified. And "yes, it was" a referendum on President Obama, "It's the only thing it can be," he says simply.

Take as an example, his current state Virginia's gubernatorial election. Neither candidate was high-profile enough to have won or lost on his own merit; it was the national environment that drove voters to bring Republican Bob McDonnell to the state house, he says. And that national environment of disillusionment was created by a President who during his campaign made many promises.

There's Afghanistan, healthcare and the economy. "Bodybags continue to come back; people don't have jobs and more than 10 percent are unemployed, he can't get healthcare passed – the whole country is not feeling good," Tiwari counts on his fingers. "He reminded me of the late '60s Bollywood hit, Sapnon ka Saudagar, where Raj Kapoor went around promising and selling dreams." The President is at his best when in election mode, according to Tiwari.

"He has the most credentials for running for election – first in Harvard, then in Illinois, where he [spent his time] running for the U.S. Senate; and while in the Senate, he was running for President, and now he is running for his second term."

That contrasts with analysis from other Republicans and Democrats who believe Bob McDonnell ran a better campaign than Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia.

Shekar Narasimhan, a businessman in Washington, D.C. who is also a Democratic Party operative, says the Nov. 3 elections were in no way a national referendum on Obama. "There's very little history to say they are. There are very many local issues that impinged."

Though the President campaigned for Democratic candidates, he contends, it was the low turnouts that impacted results. Where Nov. 3 saw some 40 percent turnout, the '08 Presidential elections drew 58 percent to the polls because of Obama's personality and promise.

He explains McDonnell's win in Virginia and Republican wins elsewhere to a better party machine. "They had good candidates. They focused on jobs and economic growth. They energized their base."

But even Narasimhan cannot ignore the national discontent.

"Clearly there was unease," he says, but to call it a referendum means people voted on whether the White House incumbent is doing well or not, and that did not happen; people voted based on the choice they had at the local level.

"But clearly there is unease in the country," he admits, and it should serve as a warning to Democrats. "If things don't turn around and nothing positive is happening, there might be a throw-those-rascals-out scenario in 2010 (mid-term elections)," Narasimhan predicts.

As to what prevented Democrats from getting good candidates and running good races, he felt the party did not energize its base. In Virginia, Obama had brought out blacks and young people, but he was not on the ticket this time. And the Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds did not energize the base as well as the Republican.

"McDonnell held as many as 60 events with Asian Americans – continuously reached out and met with them, and that includes obviously Indian Americans. The Democratic candidate took the support for granted. Obama never did that, he reached out."

Deeds, he estimated, held perhaps 10 events with Asian Americans.

"If you don't pay attention and the other guy does and there's a mood in the country, and we all fundamentally want a two-party system – you want to give the guy who pays attention to you and the party that comes up with something good, a shot at least," says Narasimhan.

Both Republicans and Democrats agree that a majority of Indian Americans, or for that matter Asian Americans, are in the Democratic fold. So it was quite a surprise that they rallied behind Pradip "Peter" Kothari, one of the Republican candidates running from the 19th District in New Jersey for the state Assembly. Several Indian Americans ran for local and state offices.

In the New York-New Jersey area, all but Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula, a Democrat, lost. But Kothari has drawn attention with his 17,000 votes, which supporters say, was not the least because Indian-American Democrats and Republicans rallied behind him.

So even as low voter turnout was the general election scenario around the country, some Indian-American analysts believe the community can have a clout and does exercise it, if needed, to tip a race. And it is not all about President Obama.

"We are at the point that we are significant enough that people have to pay attention; otherwise, lesson: Republicans, if they want us – pay attention; Dems, pay attention to us – spend your time, work the constituency," Narasimhan says.

Moderate Republican from Virginia Sudhakar Shenoy agrees with Narasimhan's analysis of the Virginia Republican win. "What happened here is that Republicans ran a really good campaign on the issues. Economy is a big thing here. McDonnell did a good job articulating where he comes from and that won him the State House." As for Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, his government was already "not very popular and very shaky anyway," he notes.

Shenoy points to another historical fact. In Virginia, for the last four decades, the party in power in the state has been the one other than that at the White House. "Historically, Virginia is a red state, which turns blue every once in a while," he says, though, "The Indian community has always been more Democratic."

Apart from Obama's problems trying to get through healthcare and immigration and the troubled economy, he says, "more importantly, there is only so much he can blame the previous administration for. As each day passes, it is more his problem."

For Republican Ashok Kaveeshwar, a businessman who served as Administrator at the Department of Transportation during the Bush administration, November 3 was partly a referendum too. "But 'referendum' is too strong a word. Though his policies and voter approval do affect the current elections, I don't think it is a predictor for 2012. Far from it," says Kaveeshwar.

More than New Jersey, Virginia was more a national [reflection], he contends, and more a reflection of Obama's policies.

What Republicans did that the Democrats did not is they appealed to Independents; additionally, Republicans go to the polls in such situations, which Democrats do not. McDonnell getting a 16 percent victory margin was close to an indictment, he indicates.

Kaveeshwar is a solid old-school Republican. Assessing President Obama's one-year performance, he says, "I certainly don't support some of his domestic policies, in particular the medical legislation currently under way. I simply think it is not right for the country. I am instinctively and philosophically against it. I personally am more for free market than anything that increases public ownership."

As for the President's other policies, he says, "It's too soon to tell," adding that he is "not a rabid anti-Obama person."