January passed, and the immigration reform bill has not reached the Senate floor. The chances of passing the reform are dwindling with each passing day. The fate of Barack Obama's other flagship initiative – health care reform – is also unknown.
The elections for the Senate seat in Massachusetts not only changed the balance of power in the Senate, but also signaled that the nation's mood had worsened. The ongoing, time-consuming buildup of compromise for health care reform (still without a guarantee for success) closes the chances of introducing changes in the immigration system and legalizing the status of undocumented immigrants, including thousands of Poles living in the United States. The White House gave up giving priority to immigration reform. Even the most skeptical supporters of legalization are not hiding their disappointment at hearing barely one casual remark or sentence devoted to immigration reform in the President's State of the Union address.
There are many other indications that immigration reform will be hard to force through before the November midterm elections. If we are to believe the press reports, Democratic majority leader Senator Harry M. Reid (NV) and Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY), the greatest promoter of immigration reform, are not giving any concrete dates as to when the immigration reform bill could be introduced in the Senate. They have limited their statements to declaring their cooperation with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham in order to build bipartisan support for the reform.
Pundits are hinting that immigration reform could become a political bomb for many members of Congress, particularly those who are looking at heated campaigns to keep their seats in the upcoming elections. As the elections draw near, the number of senators and congressmen who are willing to risk the attacks from the populist side dwindles.
Notwithstanding unfavorable circumstances, supporters of immigration reform should not put up a white flag. Easing up pressure on Congress at this very moment would mean conceding the fight. As long as there is even the slightest chance for a debate in the Capitol, we should cling to it and use it wisely. Even if the immigration bill is defeated, the issue will boomerang back because doing nothing at all will not repair the dysfunctional system. It is not entirely improbable that after the November elections we will have a more serious opportunity to build a bipartisan consensus for immigration reform in Congress.
With the current 10 percent unemployment rate, it is hard to explain to people that it makes sense to grant legal status to millions of people who share the job market. Improvement of the economic situation may help move the immigration issue along.
