The prediction by the Economics and Social Research Institute [Dublin, Ireland] that as many as 120,000 Irish people will be heading for the exits between now and the end of next year is something that has to be taken note of on this side of the Atlantic. As things currently stand, only the tiniest handful among this total would have a chance of securing legal access to the United States. And given that more than the tiniest handful will be looking west to America, it means that the population of undocumented Irish, which has been rising according to many observations, will take another leap upwards.

This potentially gives rise to the possibility that if Washington actually manages to pass some form of comprehensive immigration reform, and if that reform contains a cut-off date for legalization, there will be undocumented Irish who don't make the cut.

That's what happened back in 1986 and it gave rise to the Irish reform campaign of the following years. Of course, at that time, just about everybody else who had been locked out had secured amnesty through the '86 act.' This time around the undocumented Irish already here – and some of them have been here for many years – are in the same boat as millions of others. And that, of course, is the difference between 1986 and 2010. The three million or so who secured relief through the 1986 act amounted to a significant number of people. But as many as four times that number are waiting for relief in 2010, and will, it seems now, be still waiting in 2011.

Reform is by no means out the window and the Obama administration, with its Wall Street reform package now in the rear view mirror, has shown an ability to get legislation through on big ticket and controversial issues. But it's almost the end of July, and Congress is looking at its August recess. This will be followed by a fall session that will be dominated by the November mid-terms and after those Congress will be sitting in a lame-duck session.

So reform is not almost certainly a 2011 issue. By its dawn, the number of Irish heading this way could be quite significant. What this new influx will do, in one respect, is reinvigorate the debate over "future flow" and the contention that the Irish, who once enjoyed a goodly share of the old quota system, have been unfairly shut out of America going as far back as the landmark 1965 reform act.