Last month's release of the first detailed set of data from the decennial U.S. Census count shocked many Northern Manhattanites when it was revealed that Washington Heights, Inwood, and Marble Hill in the Bronx had lost a total of 17,751 residents.
According to State Senator Adriano Espaillat, his Senate district, which stretches from the Upper West Side to Riverdale in the Bronx, had the second largest decline of any in the state.
What baffled local leaders is that Northern Manhattan has typically had a strong turn out for the Census. Last year over 75 percent of Washington Heights and Inwood residents mailed in their questionnaire forms, the highest return rate of any community in Manhattan. Dozens of community leaders – from Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer to nonprofit executive directors – harnessed hundreds of volunteers to work with the Census to spread the word about the importance of getting an accurate count.
But after all that effort, the new population count for Northern Manhattan's 32 Census tracts was 198,483 residents, down from 216,234 in 2000. [We've published the data we used here.]
A smaller population, many fear, will result in fewer social services, less government funding, and reduced representation in state and federal legislatures.
"With the threat of budget cuts looming over every level of government, an accurate Census count key to not just getting federal funding, but for giving our community businesses and non-profits the kind of demographic data they can use to attract new clients and provide services to residents," said Congressman Charlie Rangel. "It is also key in ensuring that voting districts on every level are drawn in a way where people are fairly represented."
When the results did not turn out as expected, theories abounded as to why not.
Some locals have charged the Census of severely undercounting the population and have started an online petition. Some community leaders believe that if the Census had a satellite office in Northern Manhattan as it did in 2000 it would have helped identify the hardest-to-count residents, such as undocumented immigrants or others who feel they have little to gain from a face-to-face encounter with a government worker.
Another theory is that since Northern Manhattan's mail in response was so high, the Census devoted fewer resources to knocking on doors.
Espaillat is one elected official who has questions about the methodology of the count.
"Senator Espaillat is closely monitoring Census reports with an eye towards ensuring that every single constituent is accurately counted. Only by doing so can we guarantee that our community gets its fair share," wrote a spokesperson for the senator in an email.
The Manhattan Times has studied the data and found a trend that could explain a large portion of the lost population: there are fewer occupants in each household.
If you take the total population count from 2000 (216,234) and divide it by the total number of occupied housing units (73,446) the average number of people living in each unit was 2.94. Comparatively, the 2010 Census counted 198,483 people living in 72,540 housing units, which is an average of 2.74 people per unit.
The .2 difference between the averages might not seem like much – but it adds up. If the occupancy rate from 2000 is applied to the number of occupied households in 2010, the projected population would be 213,567, far closer to the count that was expected.
At least on paper, that would account for a difference of 15,000 people between the 2000 and 2010 counts.
Just about every Census tract in Northern Manhattan had a lower average number of occupants per unit. The only residential Census tracts where the average increased over 2000 were around Laurel Hill Terrace, Cabrini Boulevard, and Overlook Terrace.
After reviewing data provided by the Manhattan Times, Laird Bergad, Director for the Center for Latin American, Caribbean & Latino Studies at Lehman College, said that the theory explaining the population decrease "makes sense" based on a study of Northern Manhattan he conducted in 2006. He found that after peaking from 1990 to 2000 the population began to shrink by 2005.
"I see more affluent Hispanics moving in [to Northern Manhattan]. Poorer families are moving to the Bronx and more affluent people are moving into the Heights simply because rents are cheaper than on the Upper West Side and Upper East Side," he said.
"Poorer people typically have larger families," he added.
Anecdotally based on his tenant organizing work with Northern Manhattan Improvement Corporation (NMIC), Ken Rosenfeld said he believes that the average number of occupants in an apartment is decreasing.
"For sure the older immigrant population is aging in place and their children or grandchildren are moving out and leaving," said Rosenfeld, NMIC's director of legal services. "The people replacing them are not large families but are upper class and working class families with two parents and one or two kids."
The Census data also indicate that 18,554 fewer Hispanics live in Northern Manhattan than in 2000. About 71% of the population claims Hispanic origins, a three percent drop from 10 years ago.
The Census tract that had the greatest population decline in Northern Manhattan, encompassing east of Broadway between W. 169th to W. 173rd Streets, lost 1,517 people. It also had by far the largest decrease in the number of Hispanic residents, losing 2,030 people.
There are still nine Census tracts out of 32 that have populations over 80 percent Hispanic, but the percentage of Hispanics in seven of them dropped. In 2000 there were 10: the Census tract around Fairview Avenue dropped to 77 percent.
Northern Manhattan's black population also declined, dropping 3,603 people to 15,836.
Overall two groups showed population gains: whites, adding a net 5,209 residents, and Asians, increasing by 502. There are now 33,910 residents identifying as white and 4,888 who say they are Asian.
Every residential Census tract except for five had a lower population count than in 2000. Tellingly four of those that added people made sizeable gains in their nonhispanic counts. The Census tract around Laurel Hill added 734 nonhispanics; the one around Pinehurst Avenue added 466; the one around Overlook Terrace added 309; and the one around Cabrini Boulevard added 230.
However, the Census tract that had the highest population gain, picking up 643 more people, became five percent more Hispanic. It was in Marble Hill in the Bronx.
On the other hand, the Census tract with the lowest percentage of Hispanics, only 13 percent, is around Overlook Terrace and Bennett Avenue where many Hasidic Jews live.
Reviewing these data, Bergad said he had predicted that the black population would decrease and Asians would move uptown, but, "It's a bit surprising to me, however, to see the increase in nonhispanic whites," he said.
While the overall nonhispanic population of Northern Manhattan grew to 55,596 people, it is still a small minority in Northern Manhattan. Collectively there are not enough nonhispanics living here to have sold out a game at the old Yankee Stadium.
One alarming number that surfaced from the data is how many vacant units the Census counted. A total of 3,853 units were found vacant in Northern Manhattan, 1,078 more than the Census counted in 2000.
The vacancy rate jumped from 3.64 percent to 5.04 percent. And it was reported across the community. All but six of Northern Manhattan's Census tracts tallied more vacant units last year than in 2000.
Told that the Census data indicated a vacancy rate of over five percent, Rosenfeld said: "That seems outrageous. . . Five percent is a huge vacancy rate up here."
Typically, Rosenfeld said, apartments that open up are immediately rented. Some are taken off the market for repairs, or worse, left to rot by slumlords who are trying to push out tenants. But situations like that would make up a small amount of the vacancies. He couldn't think of any buildings that were "warehousing" units, purposely keeping units vacant to later rent them at higher rates.
"There is a desperate need for housing up here," Rosenfeld said.
For purposes of the Census a unit is counted as vacant if no one lives in it or if a Census taker knocked on the door and no one answered. At this time it is unclear if Northern Manhattan has a glut of over 1,000 more empty apartments or if many of those units are occupied but the tenants were never counted.
Rosenfeld was more inclined to believe that new immigrants, largely from Mexico and Ecuador, were undercounted. They could be less likely to open the door to Census workers than recent immigrants from the Dominican Republic who are often embraced by what has become an established Dominican community.
Regardless of whether or not the 1,084 units are really vacant or occupied, they would have little impact on the overall population decrease from 2000. If each unit had four occupants – a higher average than recorded in any local Census tract – it would only add about 4,000 people to the total population, a small portion of the 17,751 fewer people counted than in 2000.
Editor's Note:
The data for this article were found on the Web site for the NYC Department of City Planning.
We've published the data we used here. The Office of Congressman Charlie Rangel helped organize the data.
The Manhattan Times tried to be as accurate as possible in analyzing the data, but it's possible to make mistakes when sifting through so much information. There also seem to be discrepancies within the Census data. For instance, the 2000 population count is listed as 216,115 in one report and 216,234 in another.
